Recent statement by German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz that Houthi military advances in Yemen and attack on energy plants in Saudi Arabia have worsened energy crisis is true; but calling for international community to size up with Houthis is only inciting more chaos. In sum, it is confusion confounded.
Let me take you in a quick journey therough how the crisis unfolded and the German stake, where German action has failed so far and what remedial measures she must advocate now.
The Crisis
Saudi Arabia-Houthi conflict started in 1934
leading to victory for the Saudis resulting in the loss of Asir, Jizan, and Najran belonging to Yemen.
Since then there has been enmity brewing between the two parties. What Yemen
doing is to recover the lost areas and to assert control over Red Sea which was
in Yemen’s’ backyard. In a recent blitzkrieg, Yemenis are seen advancing in their
goal of uniting their country which the international community including
Germany must support!
German stake in Mid-East imports
German imports of crude oil from Mid-East hovers around 6% of the total. Germany is sourcing crude from Norway at 16.6%, USA 16.4% Libya13.8%. Kazakhstan supply which was around 13% earlier has wound down as Russia ordered suspension over pumping Kazakh oil via Druzhba pipeline. This is offset by Libyan supply that can be upped to 18% quickly to ease any shortage.
Hormuz blockade has affects much more than what Bab
al Mandeb blockade does. Houthis are now controlling strategic positions around Bab al-Mandab. More
than that, their attacking energy facilities in Saudi Arabia exasperated the
situation. Naturally, the resultant worsening of the situation in the energy
market has spill over effects on Germany as well.
Where Germany has failed
Friedrich Merz states that “The international community cannot allow the Houthis to take shipping in the Red Sea hostage.” This is just a declaration of war. Already US tried it and failed miserably. If Iran can do this in Hormuz why Yemen should be reprimanded. Ironically, Germany is also in cahoots with Nordic countries harassing Russian oil tankers in the Baltic Sea.
Remedial measures Germany should advocate
1. Call for an international conference to discuss both blockades Hormuz and Red Sea because these are very much interconnected in terms of geoeconomics
2. The globe must accept Hormuz Strait belonging to Iran and Oman and suggest required modus operandi for Iran to manage the Strait with participation by Oman
3. Germany should parley with Saudi Arabia in reconciling with Yemen in solving their territorial issues
4. Freedom of Navigation as an international concept must be re-evaluated taking into consideration of the rights and privileges of littoral states so that they have a stake in geoeconomics power and related responsibility
5. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the
Sea (UNCLOS) need to be amended suitably taking into account the rights and privileges
of all sea-faring nations.
Strategy Advice
Germany must join hands with brother Aryan nation Iran, to set
example of good governance that brines prosperity to all and promoting peace
and harmony along with surge in geoeconomics well-being.
Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics hold Germany
and its people responsible for solving both Hormuz and Red Sea crises!
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff
Strategy Adviser
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Strategy Adviser
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