Emmanuel Macron is making right noises after a long
lull. He points out three facts: cheap Russian gas is over; free security by US
is out; China trade costs one billion Euro daily. Is Germany listening? My take
is Germany must plot Third Way before Macron does.
Third Way explained
It was the Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar who coined
the term “Third Way" to function as an independent state unattached to a
specific group of countries but work with every other state in the globe,
assuredly being outside the domination of one or more superpowers.
Non-Aligned Movement
There is some credence in suggesting this type of
novelty. India being the founder member of the Non-Aligned Movement from its
inception in 1961 formally rejected siding with the then two power Blocs viz:
America led capitalist nations and Soviet led socialist nations. The concept of non-alignment died a natural death with the
collapse of the Soviet Union resulting in the emergence of USA as a solo
superpower which adopted International rules based order as the functional mechanism
to administer global political and financial relationship and transactions, of course
backed by US military hegemony. Regrettably, the rules are set by America and
America alone without any concurrence from Europe or elsewhere!
BRICS
German analysts are right on the role of BRICS. It
is a kind of voluntary grouping with a clear sense of direction towards the
same ideals espoused by Non-Aligned Movement but with an urge to protect their geoeconomics power base.
Yet, many of their institutions are still green horn. For example, BRICS
Development Bank as a counter to IMF/WB/IBS trio is still in its embryonic
state. Even though BRICS is in existence since 2001 and with today’s count of
11 full members and 10 partners, it is struggling to get even BRICS Pay off the
ground. In sum, BRICS lack a central power that can bind and unify the flock.
Of course, they boast of consensus, there again it fails to implement decisions
in a unified manner. Despite the fact that BRICS has more than 40% of the
global population there is still no form of assertiveness for protecting their geoeconomics
power system.
Germany geoeconomics model
It was based on the angle of leveraging input cost
to output revenue. This model required three pillars: cheap oil/gas along with
an assortment of raw materials such as steel, fertilizer etc. along with a guardian
angel in the form of America providing security guarantee. The third one and crucially
important is the availability of large consumer nations such as America and/or China underwriting
the buying of products coming out of German farms and factories.
In real life none of these are assured. In monetary
terms a single German farm or industrial product cannot withstand completion
from Eastern Europe or from the Afro-Asian tiger economies.
The road ahead
Far-Right and Far-Left parties are expected to make
a dent in the Centrist led Bundestag in the next Federal Election. One way to minimise
this jeopardy is for the CDU/CSU & SPD Coalition to adopt the Third Way as a political and geoeconomics
policy.
Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics urges Germany to assess the feasibility of Germany going for Third Way to improve her prospects.
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff
Strategy Adviser
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Strategy Adviser
