What caused the rise of AfD in Germany?

The meteoric rise of ultra-right AfD party in Germany has only one parallel in the history of modern German nation: the rise of Nazism under Adolf Hitler. Inaugurated in 2013 by disaffected former members of CSU/CDU, it has overgrown in stature & power. What caused this phenomenon?

The Alternative for Germany as a political party founded on 6 February 2013 by a group of dissidents from the centre–right conservative party CDU/CSU, headed by Bernd Lucke, Alexander Gauland and Konrad Ada. They complained that German treasury is not used for the development of Germany but for bailing-out failed euro zone countries. They collectively lent expression over Euro Scepticism and when the refugee crisis hit Europe donned an anti-immigration posture.

Today the situation is dire. The AfD enjoys public confidence at 26% in recent opinion polls, beating the incumbent Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition. In the forthcoming state elections AfD might prove to be a government forming party. Elections are expected to be held in two tranches:

In March 2026 two stares go to poll, namely Baden-Württemberg and      Rhineland-Palatinate. Three more see hustings in September 2026: Berlin,     Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt. Notably, Afd is cruising with comfortable stake in all five states, especially 39% in Saxony-Anhalt and 38% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Overall a balmy 26% support is shown for AfD compared to about 20.8% it registered in February 2025

Let me enumerate the causes:

1.  CDU/CSU alliance with SPD is most contentious as partners argue over policy and practice regarding migration, military involvement against Russia, retirement benefits, economic plans and priorities for public expenditure and many more. Result: a weak government at the helm.

2. The failure not only of the governing coalition but by others such as The Green Party, The Liberals and The Left, to make as stand against right –wing extremism and to ensure maintenance of the fabric of democracy and freedom is so glaring for everybody to see.

3. Contrarily, what is happening is right-wing campaigns are being organised on daily basis and the public is fed with anti-incumbent propaganda, all sort of misinformation, media blitz regarding perceived terrorism purported to be carried out by immigrants and finally attempts to polarise the media towards extreme right wing posture.

4. The AfD resorted to the use of social media to organize events and canvass people to attend these where party propaganda can be spewed out to the willing listeners with an idea to sway them to their side.

5. Instead of coming into terms with the broader expectations of the German society as regards to growth and harmony, AfD is becoming more aggressive and yet more radical than it was before. It is now bent upon bringing together all kinds of far-right activists outside the halls of parliament to identify with them in their ideals to form a far-right civilization throughout Germany to capture power in 2019 or probably before.

Every country including Germany has to chart its development strategy on the basis of national priorities, resources and limitations. That behoves understanding of economics within and geoeconomics without. Merz’s government is trying to do the best under the circumstances but without avail.  

What is required is saner counsel must prevail in the German cabinet so that strategy amid geoeconomics as a theme is appreciated. Any failure would lead to further unrest!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why America wants regime change in Germany?

Any careful observer of international relations and strategy amid geoeconomics would realize America is bent upon making a regime change in Germany as the leading nation in Europe such that others would fall like dominos. The current coalition of CDU/CSU plus SPD is the bulwark that stands against this.

One way to bring about a bloodless revolution is to support right-wing political parties in Europe in general and Germany in particular. Victor Orban of Hungary is indeed a darling of the White House. Trump does not hide his Trumpianism or MAGA or call it in any name. By every measure he gives unhinged support Orban likeable such as Karol Nawrocki in Poland, George Simion in Romania, Geert Wilders in Holland and of late Alice Weidel in Germany.

Trump specially sent J D Vance to the Munich Security Conference in February 2025. In his speech Vance dwelt upon the concept that Europe retreats from some of its most fundamental values of inclusive politics where contrarian opinion has been shunned by the mainstream statesmen while forming government. Indeed the diatribe was meant for the German establishment. Furthermore, alluding to Germany’s political “firewall” against the AfD he stressed “There is no place for firewalls”. Later he met with Alice Weidel.

The Trumpian goal is to let far-right forces in Europe change the democratic political landscape such that Washington can team up with them to form Pan-American alliance in geoeconomics where America is the master and Europe is the obedient servant.

Despite all these pronouncements the CDU/CSU conservatives who was placed first in the May 2025 elections for Bundestag with 208 seats ignored AfD which received the second largest stand at 152 seats and opted for a coalition with SPD whose tally was a meagre 120.

However, Trump did not accept the defeat. He caused a document to be written and published by Samuel Samson, senior adviser for the Bureau for Democracy, Human Rights and Labour in the US State Department that builds upon the theme J D Vance illustrated in Munich. The document titled “The Need for Civilizational Allies in Europe”, clearly illustrates that European elites form the biggest threat to Western values and democracy as far as USA perceives.

Recent announcement that Alice Weidel, would be invited to meet up with Trump in the White House in near future is not entirely surprising. Most European countries are struggling in their domestic economics. More than that, banding with America and NATO they sleepwalked earlier into geoeconomics quagmire. Germany suffered the most. After USA she was the biggest funder of Ukraine War.

Nord Stream blast made the survival kit bursting. With the pipe went the cheap gas that fuelled German economic growth. She was forced to buy expensive LPG from America. Here comes the clincher! AfD for all their beating of the chest re rightist policies look forward to negotiate with Russia for resuming gas supply

The regime change in Germany is not intended to antagonise Russia or for that matter China. Its primary focus is to remove Germany as the captain of EU and European integration and force her to kowtow to USA as an obedient vassal. Then and now America wishes to chart the course of European strategy amid geoeconomics primarily for her benefit. Damn Germany!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

Is Germany paving way for an AfD government?

Founded in February 2013, Alternative für Deutschland meaning Alternative for Germany, a far-right populist party delivered a bomb-shell when it gained the second largest position in the Bundestag with 152 seats in the February 2025 federal election. This is an astounding feat that is only comparable to National Socialists gaining 288 seats in March 1933.

Point of fact is AfD could not form a government on its own strength or with coalition with others as most parties shun any association with the Rightists. Hence it has to give way. Result: CDU/CSU Union bagged the trophy with SPD being the junior partner in a coalition government led by Friederich Merz after collecting a majority pf 316 seats out of the 630 members of Bundestag.

The surge of AfD is not without leaving feeling of anxiety amongst the ruling elites of Germany. The fact remains that in Germany a single party getting past the mid-point of 50% of the share of voting is unthinkable. Incidentally, the feat of Nazis getting 288 seats in March 1933 election was carried through 43.9% of the total votes cast. Hence, at the utmost percentage of votes in recent elections would border below 30% of the total votes cast for any party in the fray.

The latest party position in terms of seats won and percentage of votes received indicates that in future elections it would be dicey for the ruling elites to hold onto power. The Union won 208 seats with 28.6% of votes. AfD came second with 152 seats and 20.8% of votes. SPD was placed third with 120 seats from 16.4% of votes. The Greens was pushed down to 85 seats with 11.6% of votes. Only salient feature is that the Left is improving its position with 64 seats with 8.8% of votes cast.

If you look at the party positions compared to 2021 and 2025 elections there is a noticeable trend emerging where the Right and the Left are increasing their share at the expense of SPD and the Greens. Something strange happened: the CDU/CSU Union is gaining ground contrary to expectations. Here is the detailed position:

Gainers

The Union increased from 197 to 208 seats plus 11

AfD increased from 83 to 152 seats plus 69

The Left increased from 39 to 64 seats plus 25

Losers

SPD decreased from 206 to 120 minus 86

The Greens decreased from 118 to 85 minus 33

Next federal election is not due until 2029. However, nearly 40% of the Germans polled in the latest You Gov believe that the present government headed by Chancellor Friederich Merz would collapse before that date. Main reason for this opinion is the unpopularity of strategy adopted by the Union and SPD coalition as regards to domestic economy, geoeconomics and foreign relations with special emphasis to war in Ukraine.

Germany as a nation is hurtling down from top to bottom at an accelerated speed. Germany is not only financially broke but she has failed to navigate her strategy amid geoeconomics paving the way for the far-right AfD to capture power in Germany in due course!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser