Originally this demand was made by Vlad in December
2021; NATO must return to its 1991 borders, effectively stating that all those
countries joined thereafter are no longer part of NATO Alliance. In January
2026, Vladimir Putin renewed it. What the West can do now continue regardless or
comply?
Russia always alluded to the point that US gave a
promise not to enlarge NATO into east that means the former sphere of the then
Soviet Union. James Baker was reported to have given this assurance in
negotiations with Gorbachev. The fact is indisputable: “Not to expand one inch
to the East was given”. The fact remains that this promise was not reduced to
writing. But in diplomatic
practice both oral and written assurance have equal weight.
As anticipated NATO rejected the renewed demand vehemently
in January 2026 immediately after Putin demanded. However, the situation
prevailing now and the strategy surrounding NATO expansion calls for impartial inquiry.
Let me give you few details about the membership in
this Alliance:
1. Originally NATO formed in 1949 had 12 members. These are alphabetically Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, UK & USA
2. In 1991 four more members were admitted: Germany, Greece, Spain & Turkey
3. The expansion towards East was first made in 1994 when Czech Republic, Hungary & Poland joined.
4. Further expansion took place in 2004 when 7 more countries were admitted, namely, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Rumania, Slovakia & Slovenia
5. The year 2009 saw two more countries joining, Albania & Croatia
6. Thereafter, four more countries were o-opted: Montenegro in 2017, Macedonia in 2020, Finland in 2023 and Sweden in 2024
7. A grand total of 32 countries are in this Alliance
now, for all intent and purposes acting as a bulwark against the so-called Russian threat.
Strategy Analysis
1. Russia is not worried about Balkan nations Albania, Croatia, Macedonia and Montenegro because these were not part of the erstwhile Soviet Union
2. The Nordic countries in NATO presents security and geoeconomics threat to Russia. Denmark, Iceland and Norway were in the original lot in 1949 and can be excused. More troublesome for Russia are Finland and Sweden. In the case of Finland she was part of the Finlandisation area where she has to be neutral throughout.
3. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are the Nordic Chihuahuas who are the most irritating in terms of verbal assault upon Putin and his team.
4. Lithuania and Poland present strategic challenge as the "gap" between these two countries known as Suwałki Gap, a 60 mile stretch of border separating these two NATO countries. This gap is flanked by Kaliningrad exclave in the Baltic Sea and Belarus. Roads and railways connecting Belarus and the exclave runs thru this gap and protecting it is a big nightmare for Russia in the event of hostilities breaking out.
5. Finally, if and when Trump’s effort to rake in
Greenland succeeds, Russia
can cite the same reason Trump is blurting out today, and move in to capture
Finland first thereafter the three sisters of Baltic, Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania one after another.
Strategic Direction
Here is my input: NATO would not survive after Greenland fiasco. Once America leaves NATO, Western Europe would be left with a toothless Lion in the form of denuded NATO. Germany has to take charge now. As the engine of growth in Europe Germany has to commence proceeding to dissolve NATO and agree for a common European Security Architecture with Russia. A historic role is cast upon Germany to chart strategy amid geoeconomics so that Russia in America out and Germany up!
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff
Strategy Adviser
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Strategy Adviser
