Germany is one of five centres of power

It was Herfried Munkler, Germany’s noted political scientist who came out with the theory of power centres that emerge to replace the present unipolar system into a multi-polar one with five specific countries called as “Pentarchy”. He included USA, China, Russia along with EU & India. I beg to differ.

My contention is along with USA, China, Russia it is Germany and Iran that would be the five centres of power. In this blog, I present the case for Germany as power centre.

Basic parameters of a power centre

1. A power centre must be geographically intact with boundaries defined to be within the jurisdiction of a single state. EU is not a single state but a collection of several and diverse countries which are brought under an economic grouping first and then expended into a political union. European Economic Community, the precursor of the present Union, perhaps fit the bill as a geoeconomics centre.

2. Munkler himself argued that EU cannot survive as a power centre unless it behaves as a unified central power with autonomous geoeconomics power spectrum under its command and act as a hegemon rather than being subjected to the whim and fancy of other powers who are ever ready to dictate terms of intent and conduct. In the case of EU it is evident that without the presence of Germany it cannot survive even for a day. More than anything else, EU does not have the ability to act as a strategic power centre sans Germany.

How Germany fits into the five power centres?

1. The concept of “Exportmeister”, meaning excellence in exports drives Germany to perfect her manufacturing based on quality, precision and of durable nature. As the third largest manufacturer and exporter of goods, Germany’s globalized industries market act as primary anchor for her geoeconomics clout.

2. With the commanding feature of having a wide range of exportable goods Germany has an in-built power yielding status in the sphere of geoeconomics. The range of exports includes but not limited to motor vehicle, machinery, precision instruments, chemical products, pharma, fertilizer, and electronics along with a surprise addition of chocolates recently.

3.  Unsurprisingly, Germany has her voice heard in the halls of other powers north to south and west to east. Statements similar to ‘what would Germany think’ or ‘how Germany would react’ are chimed even in the White House.

4.  Visualcapitalist.com while ranking the world’s most loved countries allocate to Germany a coveted +21 which she shares with two of the eastern tigers: South Korea and Singapore.

Strategy Advice

My advice is frank and simple. Germany must get rid of this baggage known as European Union, a moribund organization where unelected officers hold sway and for the worst part the public in large in EU Countries and the parliaments constituted therein reflecting opinions of electorates are very much opposed to the EU Admin with special mention to its stand, policies, and practices. Ukraine war is a case in point.

Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics, recommends Germany does a Dexit as soon as possible.

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

 

Is Third Way good for Germany?

Emmanuel Macron is making right noises after a long lull. He points out three facts: cheap Russian gas is over; free security by US is out; China trade costs one billion Euro daily. Is Germany listening? My take is Germany must plot Third Way before Macron does.

Third Way explained

It was the Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar who coined the term “Third Way" to function as an independent state unattached to a specific group of countries but work with every other state in the globe, assuredly being outside the domination of one or more superpowers.

Non-Aligned Movement

There is some credence in suggesting this type of novelty. India being the founder member of the Non-Aligned Movement from its inception in 1961 formally rejected siding with the then two power Blocs viz: America led capitalist nations and Soviet led socialist nations.  The concept of non-alignment died a natural death with the collapse of the Soviet Union resulting in the emergence of USA as a solo superpower which adopted International rules based order as the functional mechanism to administer global political and financial relationship and transactions, of course backed by US military hegemony. Regrettably, the rules are set by America and America alone without any concurrence from Europe or elsewhere!

BRICS

German analysts are right on the role of BRICS. It is a kind of voluntary grouping with a clear sense of direction towards the same ideals espoused by Non-Aligned Movement but with an urge to protect their geoeconomics power base. Yet, many of their institutions are still green horn. For example, BRICS Development Bank as a counter to IMF/WB/IBS trio is still in its embryonic state. Even though BRICS is in existence since 2001 and with today’s count of 11 full members and 10 partners, it is struggling to get even BRICS Pay off the ground. In sum, BRICS lack a central power that can bind and unify the flock. Of course, they boast of consensus, there again it fails to implement decisions in a unified manner. Despite the fact that BRICS has more than 40% of the global population there is still no form of assertiveness for protecting their geoeconomics power system.

Germany geoeconomics model

It was based on the angle of leveraging input cost to output revenue. This model required three pillars: cheap oil/gas along with an assortment of raw materials such as steel, fertilizer etc. along with a guardian angel in the form of America providing security guarantee. The third one and crucially important is the availability of large consumer nations such as America and/or China underwriting the buying of products coming out of German farms and factories.

In real life none of these are assured. In monetary terms a single German farm or industrial product cannot withstand completion from Eastern Europe or from the Afro-Asian tiger economies. 

The road ahead

Far-Right and Far-Left parties are expected to make a dent in the Centrist led Bundestag in the next Federal Election. One way to minimise this jeopardy is for the CDU/CSU & SPD Coalition to adopt the Third Way as a political and geoeconomics policy.

Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics urges Germany to assess the feasibility of Germany going for Third Way to improve her prospects.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

 

SPD can comeback, it only needs a reformer

On and off, reformers appeared in the horizon of Germany. The Fuhrer is one. Ludwig Erhard is next. Gerhard Schroder is third and the most revered. Today SPD is in doldrums. It can make a great comeback. Required: A reformer of the likes of Schroder.

Let me give a bird’s eye view of what Gerhard Schroder achieved.

Domestic Economy

He alone gave peace with prosperity especially aligning with Russia and the rest of progressives of the world. He understood that domestic economics and geoeconomics should be aligned. Domestically, he did the following, ushering in economic upturn where people had money to spend. Here are few snippets:

Tax Reform 2000 brought in several goodies when ceiling of income tax was reduced from 51% to 42%. First time tax payers got a steep concession from 25% to 15%. Basic allowances increased to allow more tax free money in the hands of salaried workers. Corporate income tax reduced from 40% to 25%. As an incentivising measure unemployment insurance contribution was brought down 6.5% to 3%.

Geoeconomics

Geoeconomics push brought out a long term understanding with Russia in supplying cheap gas. He was instrumental in establishing Nord Stream pipeline that became the chief propeller of gas supply to power both domestic and industrial needs.

No wonder that his tenure as Federal Chancellor during 1998 to 2005 is fondly remembered by both corporates and individuals.

SPD Today

A junior partner in the Friedrich Merz led CDU/CSU & SPD coalition which is almost a dead man walking. Remaining in this coalition is very much detrimental to the prospects for SPD in the next Federal Election. If such an election held today, SPD would garner around 16% of votes cast and no more. In fact, in the last Federal Election held in 2025 the party got 16.4% of votes.

SPD Tomorrow

Mecklenburg State election saw SPD poised at 35.8% and came second while Berlin State gave only 12.1% being fourth in the pecking order. The Party’s Youth Wing (JUSOS) is up in arms seeking to settle its score with Lars Klingbell who remains as most unpopular co-head despite the fact he is the Vice Chancellor of Germany and also Federal Minister of Finance.  Bärbel Bas assumed co-head position in 2025 and yet to prove her mettle even in her cabinet position as Federal Minister of Labour and Social Affairs. The only sparkling star in the top ranks of SPD is Boris Pistorius who also serve in the cabinet as defence Minister.

Strategy advice

Regional momentum registered convincingly in the Mecklenburg state election must be capitalized in order to sweep oncoming elections in other states before contesting at Federal level.

A Reform Agenda must be crafted that blends both domestic economic recovery and reinstalling geoeconomics status. Can Boris Pistorius rise to the occasion?

Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics concur with Boris Pistorius if he gets counsel from Gerhard Schroder and be the reformer German needs today.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser