NATO design: Keep Germany down

The purpose of NATO was summed up as "to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down," by lord Hastings Lionel Ismay who functioned as the First Secretary General of NATO during 1952-57. The philosophy continues to date. Let me examine how Germany was being done in.

It was West Germany that officially joined NATO on 6/5/1955 as the 15th member of the Alliance. With the reunification of the then East Germany in 1990 the membership was upgraded to Federal Republic of Germany. Why America wanted the German nation in its entirety to be an active front level member of NATO?

Post war Germany was a shining example of industrial progress and prosperity all round. America wanted to drag her down. So the initial offer of membership in NTO to West Germany and thereafter with the Soviet collapse US wanted the burden of East Germany be thrust upon the shoulders of the Germans. Hence, US manoeuvred for the reunification a colossal exercise that cost more than two trillion Euro to German treasury and still remained as a bleeding wound. Look at the area comparison of East and West Germany. East Germany had an extent of 108,875 square km, whereas West Germany had land area of 248,147 square km. By October 3, 1990 Germany took over almost half of her size of land while absorbing her eastern part.

Germany luckily, recovered once again and became the engine of Europe. America was waiting on the river side of Rhine, following the advice given by Sun Tzu who said: “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.” When Russia commenced special military operations, US got another opportunity that she was waiting for to knock down Germany once again. She made Germany the lead player in Europe to resist Russia and assist Ukraine handing out largesse in terms of cash weapons, provision of intelligence not to forget diplomatic clout. Today Germany is browbeaten and now with negative growth German population is unable to meet their daily needs.

Moreover Germany has to kill the goose that was laying golden egg, which is Russian cheap natural gas. By not stopping the blast of Nord Stream pipeline Germany was complicit to a major geoeconomics blunder as well as an eco-disaster. Germany hitherto was using Russian cheap gas leveraging more than ten times by bringing out competitive industrial output and also affording households cheap cooking and heating.

At current input cost natural gas sourced from elsewhere, including USA there is absolutely no leveraging possible. At the end of production process an industrial unit coming out of German factory would cost more than what can be imported from China. Sad state of affairs indeed!

Essentially, the bottom line remains same. If you do not navigate strategy amid domestic compulsion and geoeconomics you would be played out by both!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

 

 

Co-leader system in German party politics, a critique

Increasingly German political parties are resorting to a system known as co-leader in German language ‘doppelspitze.’ Typically, a man and woman combination to share leadership such that the entire populace is represented without discrimination. My critique as follows:

Here is the break-down of parties with co-heads:

1. The Greens founded this idea in 1980 and today the “Alliance 90/The Greens” is floating well as the most gender parity party in Germany. The current joint leaders are Franziska Brantner and Felix Banaszak.

2. Social Democratic Party (SPD) followed suit in 2019 where Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil function as co-heads

3. The Left Party has co-leaders of Janine Wissler and Martin Schirdewan

4. Alternative for Germany (AfD) a clear outsider in the German ethos is most successful with 150 seats in the Bundaberg, co-chaired by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla.

Here are the reasons cited for co-chair system:

1. Presumably gender parity is the number one

2. Avoiding internal ideological split and thereby erasing the public image of any disunity in the party structure

3. Removing concentration of power in one person leading towards autocracy

4. Encouraging representation of members from perhaps two opposing wings

5. Dividing the party work-load relating to internal management and external image creation.

The exception

The only party to sail against this trend is Christian Democratic Union (CDU) which takes pride in solo leadership. Currently led by Friedrich Merz.

My critique

1. The German constitution does not support co-heads in the appointment of a Chancellor. There must be a single authority vested with legal and executive powers to lead the country. Therefore domestically the idea of having co-heads in political parties ceased to function when a head of government is to be chosen.

2. Neither European practice encourages split authority at the head of government level may be Prime Minister President or Chancellor. However, there is leeway regarding the head of state who does not possess any executive authority.

3. Only a single leader can assume leadership where decision making at the drop of a hat is vital and necessary. Not only that when the question of accountability arises it is only one Chancellor who owns success or failure.

4. Here is the catch in a contested environment such as crisis confrontation and in extreme cases warfare it must be a single leader in charge and not co-leaders.

5. Whatever said and done Friedrich Merz is the solo Chancellor and he is the one who goes down history as a great leader in making Germany a strong geoeconomics power. No co-leader nonsense!

Therefore Merz is solely responsible for navigating strategy amid geoeconomics in order to Make Germany Great Again!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

 

Germany needs constructive strategic stability with Russia

In the recent summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping a path-finding concept was introduced by the latter. Xi called it "constructive strategic stability" a sort of framework designed to guide long-term US-China relations with the aim of win-win partnership. Germany should follow the same with Russia.

Similar to US-China tension Germany is now in the crosshairs of Russia in political, military and geoeconomics areas. Xi Jinping introduced this concept to avoid volatile fluctuations taking place between the two giants and replace these with predictable relationship where issues arising between the two countries firstly managed and secondly turned towards the positive side of the spectrum.

Here are five takeaways of the concept:

1. Conciliation is mainstay where both bilateral and global issues are discussed and deliberated in a regularly held friendly forum

2. Competition between the two cannot be avoided at all. But this competition must be a healthy one where either party does not seek to destroy geoeconomics well-being of the other

3. Deliberation is the king-pin in this framework where differences are aired in a consultative process to arrive at a common solution acceptable for both

4. Collaboration between the two in order to solve not only bilateral issues but global issues especially in the area of trade & investment where both are probably on opposing camps.

5. Stabilisation is sine quo non for both countries to ensure overall stability in the international arena thereby heralding peace & prosperity to all nations in the globe.

Russo German Relationship

Now let me analyse the relationship between Germany and Russia that has plunged into its lowest depth in the post-cold war as well as post unilateral order where American led west sought to dismember the Russian Federation. Some time ago German Foreign Minister, Ms. Annalena Baerbock caused a major political uproar when she publicly stated that Germany is at war with Russia. If something goes wrong and an uncontrollable escalation happens Germany would not only be found at fault but must bear the resultant consequences.

Remember Germany was built as a geoeconomics giant on two axil: cheap credit & cheap energy.   More than that, the stable environment provided by the balance of forces within Europe that favoured via vivendi.

Putin speaks German fluently and knows the culture & ethos of German nation. He always show goodwill towards Germany the erstwhile opponent in the WWII and later cold War opponent until the collapse of the then Soviet Union.

It is time, therefore, Merz led Germany charts German strategy amid geoeconomics and start talking to Russia to foster bonhomie once again!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser