Founded in February 2013, Alternative für
Deutschland meaning Alternative for Germany, a far-right populist party delivered
a bomb-shell when it gained the second largest position in the Bundestag with
152 seats in the February 2025 federal election. This is an astounding feat
that is only comparable to National Socialists gaining 288 seats in March 1933.
Point of fact is AfD could not form a government on
its own strength or with coalition with others as most parties shun any
association with the Rightists. Hence it has to give way. Result: CDU/CSU Union
bagged the trophy with SPD being the junior partner in a coalition government
led by Friederich Merz after collecting a majority pf 316 seats out of the 630
members of Bundestag.
The surge of AfD is not without leaving feeling of anxiety amongst
the ruling elites of Germany. The fact remains that in Germany a single party
getting past the mid-point of 50% of the share of voting is unthinkable. Incidentally,
the feat of Nazis getting 288 seats in March 1933 election was carried through
43.9% of the total votes cast. Hence, at the utmost percentage of votes in
recent elections would border below 30% of the total votes cast for any party
in the fray.
The latest party position in terms of seats won and
percentage of votes received indicates that in future elections it would be dicey for the ruling elites
to hold onto power. The Union won 208 seats with 28.6% of votes. AfD came
second with 152 seats and 20.8% of votes. SPD was placed third with 120 seats from
16.4% of votes. The Greens was pushed down to 85 seats with 11.6% of votes.
Only salient feature is that the Left is improving its position with 64 seats with
8.8% of votes cast.
If you look at the party positions compared to 2021
and 2025 elections there is a noticeable
trend emerging where the Right and the Left are increasing their share at
the expense of SPD and the Greens. Something strange happened: the CDU/CSU
Union is gaining ground contrary to expectations. Here is the detailed position:
Gainers
The Union increased from 197 to 208 seats plus 11
AfD increased from 83 to 152 seats plus 69
The Left increased from 39 to 64 seats plus 25
Losers
SPD decreased from 206 to 120 minus 86
The Greens decreased from 118 to 85 minus 33
Next federal election is not due until 2029.
However, nearly 40% of the Germans polled in the latest You Gov believe that
the present government headed by Chancellor Friederich Merz would collapse before that date. Main
reason for this opinion is the unpopularity of strategy adopted by the Union
and SPD coalition as regards to domestic economy, geoeconomics and foreign
relations with special emphasis to war in Ukraine.
Germany as a nation is hurtling down from top to bottom at an accelerated speed. Germany is not only financially broke but she has failed to navigate her strategy amid geoeconomics paving the way for the far-right AfD to capture power in Germany in due course!
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff Rajulu
Strategy Adviser
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Strategy Adviser
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