Can German political parties stop the march of AfD?

The historical parallel to the recent Saxony-Anhalt election result resides in the Saarland plebiscite held on January 13, 1935 where more than 90% of voters chose to reunite with Germany rather than remain under League of Nations mandate or join France. The Fuhrer was indeed delighted then. Today it is AfD that is delighted.

The question popping up is not the defeat of the mainstream political parties in the impoverished, small, inconsequential region of Saxony-Anhalt which was once part of the East Germany under the Soviet. Can the march of AfD towards forming government after the next Federal election to be held on 25 March 2029 which is Just 30 months away be foiled?

Facts

The Saxony-Anhalt election held on 6/9/2026 gave the following result

1. AfD collected 43.8% votes plus 23% over 2021

2. CDU got 17.2% minus 19.9% of 2021

3. SPD gained 9.3% marginally higher than 0.9% of 2021

4. Greens garnered 8.9% plus 3% over 2021

5. Left down 8.6% minus 2.4% of 2021

6. FDP went down to 2.6% losing about 3.8% votes cast in 2021

Consequently AfD gets 39 seats out of total of 83 seats, three short of the 42 needed for an absolute majority in the state parliament in Magdeburg. If none of the parties are willing to give needed support, AfD can form a minority government.

Analysis

Compare this with the Federal election held in 2025 when AfD improved her position as the second largest party in the Bundestag with 152 seats gaining more than 69 seats over the allocation in 2021. There CDU gained marginally while both SPD and the Greens lost heavily with SPD taking heavy beating. Interestingly, CDU improved her position by plus 12 seats to reach 164 as the party with the largest seats in the present parliament.

Synthesis

1. It is clear the winning streak is with the AfD. Both SPD and greens have to put more efforts to gain popular support

2. If no corrective action is taken CDU stands to get through beating in the coming state elections as well. More than that, if not for her Bavarian sister party CSU, it cannot survive in the Federal Election scheduled to be held in 2030.

My Advice

Either German political parties abandon the so called policy of “Branmauer” meaning firewall against right-wing parties chiefly amongst is the AfD or do a through internal assessment in order to counter the march of far-right parties such as AfD.

Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics suggest the CDU+CSU Union plus SPD coalition re-asses policies to come out from this imbroglio!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser