Who wins the waiting game, Germany or Russia?

Today geoeconomics is the arbiter for both domestic and foreign policy. Synchronizing these policies gives optimum results. Germany and Russia have varying parameters in order to sustain their geoeconomics momentum.  However, both are looking for a win at the expense of the other.

Who can win the waiting game? Let me assay both Germany and Russia in their Geoeconomics makeup and crafting a winning strategy. 

Germany

1. Western liberal democratic set-up is rooted in the history and culture of Germany in the post- world war two scenario where high-value & high-tech generated export-led economic growth. Commerce & industry are the main pillars of the geoeconomics back-bone. Incidentally, both work as Siamese twin in that one fails the other would fail too. Undoubtedly, commerce is the driving force. Export volume is about 40% of the German GDP that oils the domestic economy and to some extent subsidise German households to enable them to enjoy standard of living much higher than elsewhere in the European neighbourhood.

2. In addition to Marshall Plan, Russia played a major role in energizing the German industry. Pun intended deliberately by me. It was the cheap Russian energy including natural gas that leveraged higher volume of manufacturing for both domestic and export use. Ukraine war predicated it. Western conspiracy intending to break German resolve in forging ahead in geoeconomics finally had its success when pipelines bringing Russian gas to Germany were destroyed. Soaring energy cost has eliminated the premium cash-flow hitherto enjoyed by the Germans.

Russia

1. As a centrally planned country, Russia is best managed by an autocrat with some semblance of democracy and public vote. However, the power centre remained with the coterie of selected people based in the Kremlin. Russia has an extractive economic model that facilitates production and sale of wide range of energy products including but not limited to oil, gas, diamonds, gold, minerals, rare- earth and associated by-products such as fertilizer. Agro products including wheat, marine products including caviar are notable exports outside the mining industry. Not to forget the armament enterprises.

2. Russia never weaponized the energy sector. This phenomenon occurred only because of the Western intransigence after the collapse of Soviet Union when the capitalist cabal went on to humiliate Russia ending with the Ukraine war which is currently in progress. Fashioned by hatred towards Russia on the one hand and the jealousy exhibited chiefly by the USA as regards to the immense wealth lying below the surface throughout Russia, US spread “Russia is enemy” narrative. Germany fell for it.

Here is the waiting game. Germany has unwittingly joined the West looking forward to the collapse of Russia in general and Putin in particular. Pipeline shutdown was the major tool in their armoury. Putin is wise enough to diversify his buyers, making China the biggest market for his energy products. While Russia does not openly call for ruining of German geoeconomics, with tongue in cheek, Putin wants to teach a lesson or two in the waiting game!

My Direction

In the short term neither Germany nor Russia would win the waiting game. In long term Germany might lose, perhaps badly!

Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics, Germany should take a bold stand against Western mechanization and befriend Russia ASAP.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

 

Hormuz crisis, Merz must soften his tone against Iran

The world implicitly recognizes that Iran has sovereignty in the Persian Strait. China together with Russia is acknowledging this by implication. Most European countries are fairly silent on this issue but tend to go with China – Russia duo. Friedrich Merz of Germany is the odd man out.

In an earlier occasion, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has plainly rejected taking sides militarily or voicing support to US as there is no core interest of Germany under risk. Bedsides this conflict does not come under the NATO coordination either. Put it other way, Germany eschewed direct participation.

Recent pronouncements by Merz takes a 360 degree turn. Germany voiced opposition to Iran for her military actions in and around Hormuz Strait and treated it as threat to maritime security, freedom of navigation and interfering with international trade. Furthermore, Germany demanded Iran to allow free passage to both commercial and military vehicles without these being subjected to any harm’s way.

The bombshell came just now. Merz declared that he is ready to help US in her effort to unblock the Strait diplomatically, failing which militarily. Merz demanded Iran to do the following:

1. Iran must settle matters at the negotiating table

2. Iran must not dilly dally as regards to the urgent matter of unblocking Hormuz

3. Iran should stop holding the region and the globe hostage

4. Iran must dismantle her nuclear programme be it is for civil or military purposes

5. Finally, Iran must not attack Israel at all.

My Take

1. Friedrich Merz see the writing on the wall that he is on the way out as his support base is shrinking and AfD is gaining

2. German establishment must come to terms with the fact Similar to German tribes Iranians are Aryans and are excellent fighters and administrators

3. Both China & Russia on board with North Korea lending side support to make Iran as the Fourth centre of activity. Of course, America is one of the powers but neither Germany nor India has this covetous stake

4. Iran is ranked fourth in terms of natural resources within her borders.

5. The Eurasian chessboard cannot function without Iran being roped in.

6. Not only that, Iran is indispensable partner for the multi polar world

7. German destiny is inter-wined with both West European landmass and the global south.

German leaders including Friedrich Merz must navigate strategy amid geoeconomics by siding with Iran and not fighting against her. 

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

Why Germany must join CIPS?

No one can challenge SWIFT. It is the most ubiquitous messaging system globally. In 2025 alone SWIFT recorded the highest volume of daily messages over 68 million in a single day. Average daily messages transferred last year amounted to about 53 million. But there emerges a new challenger from the Far East: CIPS. So far Germany has ignored its presence. Now it is time to join!

The initials CIPS represents Cross-Border Interbank Payment System. It serves as a clearing house settling funds directly, especially for Yuan transactions. CIPS and SWIFT are not mutually exclusive. These are of complementary nature. One can join either or both. Both SWIFT & CIPS adopts ISO 20022 standards and CIPS frequently uses SWIFT for messaging in languages such as English, French etc.

The major difference is, while SWIFT is under the sway of Western nations, especially America, CIPS has autonomy. Moreover, CIPS has provided an alternative for countries looking forward to avoid US sanctions. CIPS is indispensable for parties dealing directly with Chinese buyers & sellers especially in case of large value transactions in Yuan.

Primarily owned and backed by Chinese state entity, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) whose portfolio is the largest is accompanied by a cocktail of other Chinese state-owned banks. Many other outside participants include world renown banking houses such as HSBC, Standard Chartered,, DBS Bank, Citigroup, ANZ Banking Group, and BNP Paribas. Right now it has more than 172 direct participants and well over 1,400 indirect participants across 109 countries.

The trouble with SWIFT is not her professional standing but the way Western Nations interfere in her day-to-day operations. US, UK & EU Trio shaming her neutrality imposes targeted sanctions against countries such as Iran & Russia and blocking firms from these countries out of SWIFT switchboard.   In sum SWIFT has become a ploy in the geoeconomics power play.

In contrast, CIPS offers strict neutrality, faster Yuan payments, lower cost of operations, more than anything else, a true alternative to the capitalist cabal controlled SWIFT mechanism. Major plus of course is avoidance of US-initiated mischief.

Potential benefits to Germany

Car giants such as Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz and BMW who have extensive deals in China along with chemical giants BASF, and polymer boss Covestro and specialty chemicals chief Lanxess who are bent upon expanding their business connections in China would be pleased to see Germany joining CIPS.

Not to forget banks, I feel both Deutshe Bank AG and Commerz Bank AG would be delighted to become direct participants in CIPS. For them here is this tip: in 2025 SWIFT turnover was around USD 65 Trillion whereas CIPS is not far away at USD 26 Trillion equivalent in Yuan and other currencies. By the way, CIPS started in 2015 whereas SWIFT is operating since 1973.

Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics impel Germany to join CIPS right away without losing any time and continue in SWIFT as usual.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser