Which goes bust first, EU or Germany?

Germans might not agree with me when I say it would be Germany that goes bust first. My rationale is simple mathematics. German trade deficit with China is €110 billion this year. E U as a whole has a deficit of €360 billion. From its appearance it appears Germany is somewhat better. No! It is Germany which carries the EU on her back. So who goes bust first?

Financials explained

Let me explain little more on this maths. EU trade deficit with China alone is € one billion per diem annualised to €360 billion. Whereas, Germany recorded a deficit of €55 billion in the first half of 2026, with a trend to repeat almost the same in the remaining half. Put in simple maths, the rest of EU accounts for € 250 billion deficit which Germany has to manage. It is similar to a ship-wrecked sailor who swims towards the shore carrying another weighing treble his weight.

The European Union accounts for around 17% of the global trade out of which, just about the quarter at 24% is contributed by Germany alone. More than that, Germany ranks the third largest trading partner in global trade with more than € 1.66 trillion. In terms of percentage it amounts to 6.5% share, a good performance indeed.

Analysis worked out

But the sad factor is Germany is bled profusely by the rest of the EU. A quick preview states the obvious: in the inter-EU trade dynamics, German exports to the rest of EU is 55% whereas imports from there is at 65%. Put it simply, Germany pays more to the coffers of the E U Cartel. This over-reaching is done at the cost of German taxpayers.

Trade is only one such issue bleeding Germany. There are many. One glaring incident was the Greek financial bail-out of 2010 where an estimated €110 billion aid was chalked out with Germany to carry the burden @ 28% amounting to €22.4 billion, hitting one again the taxpayers who already suffer from tight budget in their household expenditure.

Synthesis derived

Germany is committed to the hilt as regards to the functioning of EU Secretariat.  Out of the total contribution of €30 billion annually and after receiving back agri-funding etc., Germany suffers net payment out for the functioning of EU at €13.1 billion which works out German citizens paying €157 per person, the highest per capita burden throughout the European Union.

The bottom line is, in terms of geoeconomics, Germany is the one who carries undue burden of running the European Union as a regional & international organization.

Strategy defined

1. From the foregoing, it is proven that EU depends on Germany rather than Germany depending on EU

2. Net benefit of EU-German relationship is marginal and not substantial

3. The European piggybacking on Germany is very harmful to the German people and their economy

4. If correcting measures are not taken in a timely fashion, Germany has to go the Greek way in bankruptcy.

Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics dictates that Germany must quit European Union sooner than later!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser