Germany leaving EU is possible now

Germany is on fast track in considering the so far bitter pill of leaving the European Union often called as “Dexit”. Although most Germans so far believed in continuing within the Union are getting a push back by the rising support for AfD which vouches for Dexit. Read for more:

“The shift towards Right wing party Is Inevitable", declares AfD Co-Leader Alice Weidel who sees the trend towards her party forming the next administration in Germany crystallising. It is crystal clear that each and every day EU high officials make unpopular decision preceded by even more unpopular declaration. The case of point is Kaja Kallas who is responsible for foreign relations announcing that  EU should impose sanctions against Iran under the pretext of violating freedom of maritime navigation thru Hormuz Strait.

Analysis

1) I have analysed the pros and cons of Germany Leaving the Union in a previous blog post and found it feasible. Read:

https://strategyadviser.blogspot.com/2026/04/brexit-happened-what-about-dexit.html

2) About existing sanctions by EU endorsed by Germany I have presented the case for a re-assessment. Read: 

https://strategyadviser.blogspot.com/2026/05/germany-must-rethink-over-iran-sanctions.html

Synthesis

As regards to geoeconomics, Germany must chart a course taking into account of her interest and not of other power blocs including EU and/or America. Besides, Trump is on course to reconcile with Iran which is emerging as the fourth power centre after USA, Russia and China. As they say in Latin Carpediem, Germany must catch the day of speedy reconciliation with Iran!

Direction

Therefore, it behoves the present CSU/CDU/SPD coalition to navigate strategy amid geoeconomics by leaving the European Union ASAP.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

 

 

Germany can solve Chinese banana conundrum

China went overdrive on priority sectors such as roads, railways, township development both in urban & rural areas. Her industrial base was basically in a narrower land mass. This resulted in “banana conundrum” which can be solved only by Germany. Howzat?

Unmistakeably, China was correct in developing public goods for the benefit of the fast increasing urban and rural population. Not only that, the industrial development in its entirety got China trapped into a “geoeconomics banana” where bulk of her economic growth is located in a banana shaped geographical form connecting North-East to South- West shore of the China Sea. Guangdong Province with Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Dongguan & Foshan in the Pearl River Delta along with Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou and Ningbo in Yangtze River Delta shaping into an image of a banana. Hence, the “banana conundrum”.

On the other hand, Germany went on to develop high–skilled engineering and techno products. Unlike China her development covered diverse areas.

Regional spread of German industrialization

1. The Rhine-Ruhr Area: North Rhine-Westphalia along the Rhine and Ruhr rivers, known for coal mining, steel production, assisted by natural resources availability along with transportation network

2. Saxony is next in importance with plenty of high-skilled labour in abundance specializing in textiles, precision engineering and mechanical works with well-known cities such as Chemnitz, Dresden and, Leipzig  

3. Berlin is not only the capital of FRG but also an industrial centre for electrical engineering and home to Siemens and AEG

4. Württemberg in the South-West known for highly skilled & highly specialized manufacturing and automobile industry with famous brands Daimler and Benz.

Germany helping China

Obviously, Germany is in an excellent position to help China diversify its development programs not only from rural to urban but spread across the Chinese landmass. Post war Germany has done this extremely well. Hence, Germany is more than welcome in China to undertake the geoeconomics necessity for China to escape from the banana conundrum. China business is targeted for mass production and not for prestige products. Of course, volume drives in profit. Yet China phasing out of consumer durables to luxury goods, vehicles and other paraphernalia would be a wiser move. This is where German efficiency excels and much required by China.

My synthesis

A kind of give and take has to be brought in. This is more pertinent in techno sector. More partnership deals must be struck between Germany and China in quantum computing, cloud computing, AI, space research and many other novel areas along with joint production of well-known German brands.

The heart of the matter is, trade & investment facilitation must be given priority status and Germany should come out with innovative programs of connecting China’s vast areas both in her northern and western parts of the industrial belt, and more importantly to help China escape from her banana conundrum.

Hence, navigating strategy amid geoeconomics forces German hands to bind with the Chinese ones for mutual benefit!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

Hormuz blockade, why Germany failed to see it coming?

Iran has been threatening for sometimes that if hostilities begin with USA, she would close the Hormuz Strait for commercial shipping. The writing on the wall is clear. Yet Germany ignored. Why?

Writing on the wall

On 23/4/224 I wrote:

"Unescapably, the narrowest point of the Hormuz Strait is under the Iranian control. That alone gives Iran geoeconomics clout unheard so far in the navigation annals.

But Houthi’s success in interdicting naval operations in the Bab-al Mandeb along with Red Sea extended to Oman Sea as well has changed the table and heralds fairly strong position on the part of Iran.

Ground situation has changed now so is the naval power dynamics. America and/or the Global North cannot rule the waves as it was used to be in the halcyon days." See: https://strbiz.blogspot.com/2024/04/if-iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz.html

I followed up the warning on the following day 24/4/2024:

"Ominous announcements by IRGC apart, there is serious discussion of emerging scenario of Iran blocking Strait of Hormuz partially, taking place amongst geoeconomics analysts. Of course there cannot be smoke without any fire." See: https://strbiz.blogspot.com/2024/04/partial-blocking-of-hormuz-is-on-cards.html

It is now almost more than two years since I elaborated on this subject. The globe is now suffering from high prices of oil and gas. The most affected part is the Western Europe, especially Germany, after the Nord Stream blast and EU sanctions against Russian gas.

Why Germany ignored warnings over closure of Hormuz Strait?

1. Germany was too preoccupied with Ukraine war

2. No protest against the Nordic Stream was ever expressed to the culprits who perpetrated it namely US, Uk & Ukraine

3. Germany was too comfortable with the EU energy programme that depended on alternate supplies from USA

4.  The understanding among the elites is energy shortage help them raking up huge profits at the expense of common man

5. Germany and the rest of Europe thought Iran has no gumption to fight against the rules based international order led by America and reinforced by the EU

6. Germany failed to factor in probable fluctuations in the domestic renewable supply quantum

7. Germany missed the vital point in geoeconomics: surge in energy prices would not only affect the industrial & commercial base but drastically reduces the consumer savings due to drop in disposable income.

My Comment

The administration in Germany must formulate action plans promptly to offset effects of Hormuz Closure and to navigate strategy amid geoeconomics.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser