Hormuz blockade, why Germany failed to see it coming?

Iran has been threatening for sometimes that if hostilities begin with USA, she would close the Hormuz Strait for commercial shipping. The writing on the wall is clear. Yet Germany ignored. Why?

Writing on the wall

On 23/4/224 I wrote:

"Unescapably, the narrowest point of the Hormuz Strait is under the Iranian control. That alone gives Iran geoeconomics clout unheard so far in the navigation annals.

But Houthi’s success in interdicting naval operations in the Bab-al Mandeb along with Red Sea extended to Oman Sea as well has changed the table and heralds fairly strong position on the part of Iran.

Ground situation has changed now so is the naval power dynamics. America and/or the Global North cannot rule the waves as it was used to be in the halcyon days." See: https://strbiz.blogspot.com/2024/04/if-iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz.html

I followed up the warning on the following day 24/4/2024:

"Ominous announcements by IRGC apart, there is serious discussion of emerging scenario of Iran blocking Strait of Hormuz partially, taking place amongst geoeconomics analysts. Of course there cannot be smoke without any fire." See: https://strbiz.blogspot.com/2024/04/partial-blocking-of-hormuz-is-on-cards.html

It is now almost more than two years since I elaborated on this subject. The globe is now suffering from high prices of oil and gas. The most affected part is the Western Europe, especially Germany, after the Nord Stream blast and EU sanctions against Russian gas.

Why Germany ignored warnings over closure of Hormuz Strait?

1. Germany was too preoccupied with Ukraine war

2. No protest against the Nordic Stream was ever expressed to the culprits who perpetrated it namely US, Uk & Ukraine

3. Germany was too comfortable with the EU energy programme that depended on alternate supplies from USA

4.  The understanding among the elites is energy shortage help them raking up huge profits at the expense of common man

5. Germany and the rest of Europe thought Iran has no gumption to fight against the rules based international order led by America and reinforced by the EU

6. Germany failed to factor in probable fluctuations in the domestic renewable supply quantum

7. Germany missed the vital point in geoeconomics: surge in energy prices would not only affect the industrial & commercial base but drastically reduces the consumer savings due to drop in disposable income.

My Comment

The administration in Germany must formulate action plans promptly to offset effects of Hormuz Closure and to navigate strategy amid geoeconomics.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser