Europe under attack

During the last few centuries it was Europe that was attacking the rest of the world, creating colonies and crafting their destinies. Now the tables are turned. There is notable scramble for Europe. Here is the evidence:

1. America which for the entire twentieth century provided leadership, in political, economic and military affairs of the continent has apparently changed course and now talk about Make America Great Again (MAGA)

2. A new challenger has emerged in the horizon in the form of BRICS with dedication towards multi polarity. Gone are the days the G7 can set the rules and rule the waves. Day after day this motley group is coming out with new systems and institutions posing a direct threat to the western hegemony. Trading currency, reserve currency, payment system, settlement system and of recent replica for Brussels based Euro clear are part and parcel of this challenge

3. Of late, the RIC format got a new addition;

Russia-Iran-China trio is expected to transform into a Pygmalion in all three vital vectors, politics, economics and military in direct contestation with Europe

4. For all these years the fate of Russia was deeply ingrained in the European culture where Russian energy oiled the entire industrial production with notable contribution by Germany leveraging five to six times energy to final product ratio. Now Russia is unplugging from European theatre and moving towards China & Global South. In terms of geoeconomics, this is the major shock

5. NATO ideology of keeping Russia out, America in and Germany down has only made Europe to outsource her security across the Atlantic, a strategy akin to hara-kiri the famed Japanese self-sacrifice. No distinct military industrial complex was seen anywhere in Europe. Ukrainian collapse is expected soon with that European security architecture falling like a domino

6. Only the fools would expect Germany to be bound with moribund NATO security umbrella when America calls it a day. Either Germany makes the move first by quitting NATO or be bound to carry the burden of providing for European security in addition to the existing function of funding Europe. In context, let me allude to the earlier understanding that Germany should finance Europe while France provides for the Gendarme

7.  Finally, the biggest threat for Europe is not external but internal. Once Russia winds up Ukraine war there is inevitable re-drawing of Ukraine –Russia border. I doubt whether it would be an isolated incident. Hungary has eyes on Carpathian lands, Poland would ask for L’viv city and surrounding areas. Belarus would expand to the present Southern Ukraine. Rumania not to be left out would encroach on the Danube river crossings. For all these claimants geoeconomics is the primary factor for acquiring more lands from the rump Ukraine.

Hence, strategy amid geoeconomics remains the guiding motivator for re-drawing of the boundaries between and amongst the European countries. And that is deemed as the paramount threat!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser