Germany must combine eternal war with eternal peace

Peace through strength is the present day mantra in America. This concept has made US Dollar a global currency and her military industrial complex as propeller of both domestic economic growth and global geoeconomics status. What Germany must do?

Let me say this as a preamble. It was Adolf Hitler, a proud German and Aryan, who declared that “mankind grows great in eternal war and decays in eternal peace”. As a predecessor of eternal war concept, Hitler explained that war should be fought in order to acquire living space known in German as Lebensraum. Hence, the Fuhrer moved fast in annexing Austria which is at that time majority German speaking nation and was once part and parcel of Austro Hungarian Empire.

Hitler’s theory was right because this Empire as a centre for arts, crafts, music, dance and other paraphernalia of elitist culture during the time of eternal peace fell into complacence and finally was defeated by Anglo-Saxons in the First World War. Hence, Hitler espoused eternal war as a binding concept such that German society must be ready to wage war to preserve a unified state and at the same time develop skills and technology befitting a modern nation.

Today America follows the same concept. Waging forever war under “peace through strength” dictum she was able to achieve the lead nation status in geoeconomics, geoeconomics and geostrategy. China on the other hand speaks for eternal peace in every international forum yet concentrates upon building a modern army, navy, air force adding one more dimension, space force to project global power.

All these have been achieved via building firstly China as a great geoeconomics power in diverse areas such as manufacturing, agro-industry, housing, transportation and human resource development. Undoubtedly, China is the largest trading power too. Yet, she is one of the notable peace makers today. A good example is how she reconciled Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East.

What Germany should do under these circumstances? Follow permanent war or permanent peace or a mixture of both. Right now, Germany is seen re-arming. Boris Pistorius, German defence minister has donned the garb of path finder. He is bent upon making Bundeswehr a capable conventional force in the European theatre by 2029 that is ready for a war (Kriegstüchtig). Against whom is the question? His full plan including active-duty soldiers numbering 260,000 and reservists at 200,000 totalling 460,000 by the target year is achievable. A budgeted defence expenditure per annum starting with € 108 Billion to € 150 Billion by 2029 is also feasible.

My take

But the question that lingers is against whom Germany is going to fight and with what technology. Finally it boils down to the strategic focus. Follow the Americans or replicate the Chinese? It behoves Friedrich Merz led cabinet to combine eternal war with eternal peace in a useful format. What matters is the need to navigate strategy amid geoeconomics and craft a feasible plan for the German rearmament.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

Putin suggests Gerhard Schroder as Russo German negotiator

In a press interview, Vladimir Putin emphasized that Russia had built its relations with Europe on the basis of mutual respect and suggested former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder as a preferred negotiator in talks between Germany and Russia. The ball is now in the court of Friedrich Merz led German cabinet.

A negotiator must be chosen wisely. In between two parties in disagreement, an agreement can only arise when a suitable negotiator acceptable to both is nominated. Let me say something about few negotiators who are currently active in the present geoeconomics scene[Ma1] .

Kirill Dmitriev is tasked by the Russian side to lead discussion with Trump led US Administration. He is currently the CEO of Russian Direct Investment Fund and well-versed in finance & geoeconomics, having studied both in Harvard and Stanford.

Now look at the Duo whom Trump has tasked to forge a solution in US-Iran tiff. Steve Witkoff is his golf-pal and worked with him in real estate deal making. Jared Kushner is his son-in-law and principal partner at Kushner Companies, a major real estate firm with an estimated portfolio valued overused 2.9 billion. None of them have skills in geoeconomics negotiation.

Now let me turn to German–Russian talks. President Putin noted that Europe should choose a negotiator who had not “said nasty things about us.” He added that Russia remains open to negotiations with the right person.

Now, let me analyse whether Gerhard Schroeder is the right person?

1. He is a catalyst, in the post Kohl administration of SPD government of 1998 he balanced diverse opinions in the party and cabinet to achieve a win-win situation using balanced approach

2. He enmeshed both social welfare for which SPD was committed to, along with pragmatic policies in domestic economy as well as in geoeconomics recovery for the German nation

3. Dedicated to friendly foreign relationship with countries in Europe and elsewhere along with special attention to Russia, he as his name implied tailored the coat of Deutsch-Russo bonhomie  

4. He foresaw rightly, the demise of uni-polarity and the emergence of multi- polarity and went on developing relationship with powers in the global south especially China

5. On retirement from politics, he has honed his skills in running large corporates such as Nord Stream AG, Rosneft and Gazprom.

For attention of readers

I have written previously a blogpost titled “Why Gerhard Schroeder is the man of the hour”. 

https://strategyadviser.blogspot.com/2026/01/why-gerhard-schroeder-is-man-of-hour.html

Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics, it behoves Merz administration to consider Gerhard Schroeder as negotiator for German-Russian talks!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

Who wins the waiting game, Germany or Russia?

Today geoeconomics is the arbiter for both domestic and foreign policy. Synchronizing these policies gives optimum results. Germany and Russia have varying parameters in order to sustain their geoeconomics momentum.  However, both are looking for a win at the expense of the other.

Who can win the waiting game? Let me assay both Germany and Russia in their Geoeconomics makeup and crafting a winning strategy. 

Germany

1. Western liberal democratic set-up is rooted in the history and culture of Germany in the post- world war two scenario where high-value & high-tech generated export-led economic growth. Commerce & industry are the main pillars of the geoeconomics back-bone. Incidentally, both work as Siamese twin in that one fails the other would fail too. Undoubtedly, commerce is the driving force. Export volume is about 40% of the German GDP that oils the domestic economy and to some extent subsidise German households to enable them to enjoy standard of living much higher than elsewhere in the European neighbourhood.

2. In addition to Marshall Plan, Russia played a major role in energizing the German industry. Pun intended deliberately by me. It was the cheap Russian energy including natural gas that leveraged higher volume of manufacturing for both domestic and export use. Ukraine war predicated it. Western conspiracy intending to break German resolve in forging ahead in geoeconomics finally had its success when pipelines bringing Russian gas to Germany were destroyed. Soaring energy cost has eliminated the premium cash-flow hitherto enjoyed by the Germans.

Russia

1. As a centrally planned country, Russia is best managed by an autocrat with some semblance of democracy and public vote. However, the power centre remained with the coterie of selected people based in the Kremlin. Russia has an extractive economic model that facilitates production and sale of wide range of energy products including but not limited to oil, gas, diamonds, gold, minerals, rare- earth and associated by-products such as fertilizer. Agro products including wheat, marine products including caviar are notable exports outside the mining industry. Not to forget the armament enterprises.

2. Russia never weaponized the energy sector. This phenomenon occurred only because of the Western intransigence after the collapse of Soviet Union when the capitalist cabal went on to humiliate Russia ending with the Ukraine war which is currently in progress. Fashioned by hatred towards Russia on the one hand and the jealousy exhibited chiefly by the USA as regards to the immense wealth lying below the surface throughout Russia, US spread “Russia is enemy” narrative. Germany fell for it.

Here is the waiting game. Germany has unwittingly joined the West looking forward to the collapse of Russia in general and Putin in particular. Pipeline shutdown was the major tool in their armoury. Putin is wise enough to diversify his buyers, making China the biggest market for his energy products. While Russia does not openly call for ruining of German geoeconomics, with tongue in cheek, Putin wants to teach a lesson or two in the waiting game!

My Direction

In the short term neither Germany nor Russia would win the waiting game. In long term Germany might lose, perhaps badly!

Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics, Germany should take a bold stand against Western mechanization and befriend Russia ASAP.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser