Germany loses confidence of Global South

The Fuhrer must be turning in his grave. The German power he built over a period has vanished into thin air. Let alone European nations, the countries in the Global South have abandoned her in the recent election for nominating non-permanent members of UN Security Council, held on 3/6/2026. What happened?

Germany is not new to the Security Council. As west Germany she served two stints in the last century and as FRG five stints one during 1995/96 and four in the 21^st Century the last one being 2019/2020. Then Germany imbued confidence amongst the fast increasing member nations of the Global South. The sad disappointment of getting only 104 votes below the threshold of 2/3^rd majority members voting that too much below Austria which got through with 131 votes is a tell –tale sign that something is rotten in German body politic.

Geopolitics behind the fall-out

1. Germany turned Nelsonian Eye as regards to the genocide committed by Israel in Gaza and Lebanon. Neither she condemned this rogue state or imposed restrictions to the Settler Colonial Economy, even though she was eulogizing the International rules based system.

2. In contrast Germany went pell-mell over the Special Military Operation (SMO) by Russia against Ukraine. Furthermore, Germany imposed both political and economic penalties over Russia.

3. This double standard in foreign policy apart, after the Chancellorship of Angela Merkel, Germany is being perceived as an isolationist nation out of context with the growing power & influence of the Third World.

Geoeconomics behind the debacle

1. Germany once the largest provider of Official Development Assistance (ODA) around USD 29 Billion mainly intended for the Global South is now pruning down the amount to the frustration, to say the least among the developing countries as a whole. In comparison, France which has much smaller economy compared to Germany aids global south to the tune of USD 15.4 Billion annually

2. In terms of international trade outside America & Europe the German figure ranged between USD 450 to 490 Billion out of which China alone accounted for more than USD 270 Billion. The net figure hovers around USD 220 Billion.   Substantial part of it relates to India leaving the barest minimum to countries in Africa, Asia & Latin America.

3. In contrast, France's international trade with the Global South prioritizes emerging markets across Indo-Pacific, Africa, and Southeast Asia with a noble idea of spreading evenness amongst the recipients.

My Advice

Admitting the failure over not being elected as non-permanent member serving in 2027/29, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul considered it as a major foreign policy defeat and assured that he would do a thorough analysis of the causes of this debacle.

It is time for the Merz led German Cabinet to navigate strategy amid geoeconomics and enhance aid to and trade with the Global South!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

Removing Friedrich Merz as Chancellor, why now?

Although Friedrich Merz was re-elected as Chairman of CDU on 20/2/2026 securing 91.17% votes cast at the party's national convention held in Stuttgart his honeymoon was over within the span of few months. Voters wide across the German body politic are calling for his removal. Why now?

Here is a sampling of his stature:

1. Overall approval rate l remains within a narrow band of 14 to 21%

2. Popularity position is the last of 20 prominent leaders surveyed

3. Global acceptance the lowest for any European leaders

4. Most telling is CDU/CSU Union forecast that only 10% will vote for him again.

Let me analyse this tragedy under two captions: domestic compulsions and geoeconomics dictates.

Domestic compulsion

1. He declared war against the sanctum of Germany as a welfare state by diluting it in order to get out of the economic stagnation Germany is in now. Under the hubris “modernization” he is bent upon cutting down social security payments and economic relief measures as means of reducing budget deficit. Pruning statutory health care system in earnest has got him in crosshairs with elderly people and the low-income group

2. Fiscal reform is yet another idiocy. Whereas reducing tax burden on the low-income earners is a welcome sign his adamant refusal to resort to tax hike for high income earners placed him a juxtaposition. Both these measures are not only contradictory but do not help balancing the budget.

3. Fixing the threshold of 42% as overall taxation ceiling gives him no room to manoeuvre

4. Anti-migration policy which being implemented using inhuman deportation has been a thorn in the flesh.

Geoeconomics dictates

1. Macho Merz along with his buddy defence minister Boris Pistorius are at loggerheads with both Donald Trump and Vlad Putin. Both have expressed dis-pleasure over his conduct and statements

2. Raking up defence expenditure and avowing to become the most powerful military nation in Europe would not be seen favourably by three global powers America Russia and China and the two European heavy weights France and Britain.

3. Vlad suggested Gerhard Schroder as the negotiation person for Russo – German reconciliation. Friedrich Merz rejected it but yet to nominate an acceptable negotiator

4. Contrary to widely accepted notion the recent summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Friedrich Merz in Beijing on 25/2/2026 failed to get Chinese commitment for investing big in German industry & commerce.

My advice

Leaving aside the lack of impressive personality in Friedrich Merz, he has got to improve his charm and inter-personal relationship domestically with German population as a whole as well as in his transactions with global leaders.

More than anything else, Merz as the leader of Germany must navigate strategy amid geoeconomics to be acceptable and adored!  

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

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NATO design: Keep Germany down

The purpose of NATO was summed up as "to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down," by lord Hastings Lionel Ismay who functioned as the First Secretary General of NATO during 1952-57. The philosophy continues to date. Let me examine how Germany was being done in.

It was West Germany that officially joined NATO on 6/5/1955 as the 15th member of the Alliance. With the reunification of the then East Germany in 1990 the membership was upgraded to Federal Republic of Germany. Why America wanted the German nation in its entirety to be an active front level member of NATO?

Post war Germany was a shining example of industrial progress and prosperity all round. America wanted to drag her down. So the initial offer of membership in NTO to West Germany and thereafter with the Soviet collapse US wanted the burden of East Germany be thrust upon the shoulders of the Germans. Hence, US manoeuvred for the reunification a colossal exercise that cost more than two trillion Euro to German treasury and still remained as a bleeding wound. Look at the area comparison of East and West Germany. East Germany had an extent of 108,875 square km, whereas West Germany had land area of 248,147 square km. By October 3, 1990 Germany took over almost half of her size of land while absorbing her eastern part.

Germany luckily, recovered once again and became the engine of Europe. America was waiting on the river side of Rhine, following the advice given by Sun Tzu who said: “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.” When Russia commenced special military operations, US got another opportunity that she was waiting for to knock down Germany once again. She made Germany the lead player in Europe to resist Russia and assist Ukraine handing out largesse in terms of cash weapons, provision of intelligence not to forget diplomatic clout. Today Germany is browbeaten and now with negative growth German population is unable to meet their daily needs.

Moreover Germany has to kill the goose that was laying golden egg, which is Russian cheap natural gas. By not stopping the blast of Nord Stream pipeline Germany was complicit to a major geoeconomics blunder as well as an eco-disaster. Germany hitherto was using Russian cheap gas leveraging more than ten times by bringing out competitive industrial output and also affording households cheap cooking and heating.

At current input cost natural gas sourced from elsewhere, including USA there is absolutely no leveraging possible. At the end of production process an industrial unit coming out of German factory would cost more than what can be imported from China. Sad state of affairs indeed!

Essentially, the bottom line remains same. If you do not navigate strategy amid domestic compulsion and geoeconomics you would be played out by both!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser