Germany lusting after war, will this work?

A sinister attempt is quietly being played out in the Western Capitals. Only Germany has the potential to replace the U.S. as the military backbone in Europe and through NATO globally. Hence, Bundeswehr must be prepped to do just that: lusting after war. But will this work?

Friedrich Merz recently declared: “Russia threatens our security; China challenges our economy and the transatlantic partnership can no longer be taken for granted." In sum he has put the cart before the horse. Instead of analysing the present geoeconomics fiasco Germany is in Merz is emphasising more on the security and foreign policy aspects rather than on the domestic economy and Germany’s status in geoeconomics.

Facts & Analysis

1. Nominal GDP ranking expected in 2026 goes as USA $ 30.50 Trillion, Russia $ 2.50 Trillion, China $19.23 Trillion, India $3.87 Trillion and Germany $4.74 Trillion

2. Juxtaposing defence expenditure we get fairly alarming position. America accounts for $954 Billion, Russia $190 Billion, China $336 billion India $92 Billion and Germany $114 Billion

3. Defence Expenditure as percentage of nominal GDP of these countries work out as USA 3.1%, Russia 7.6%, China 1.7% India 2.3% and Germany 2.4%. These figures are approximations only.

Synthesis

1. Lusting after war requires Germany to jack up the defence expenditure to GDP more than that of the US ratio, say at 4%. At the present level of GDP that would be around $190 Billion. Incidentally this figure equals the current defence overlay by Russia

2. Where this additional defence expenditure of $76 Billion go? To recurrent expenditure such as salaries & upkeep for the servicemen in payroll today or to expand the current military strength of uniformed personnel from 184,194 to be around 250,000 men & women soon  to fight mainly against Russian army of 1.5 Million.

3.  There again the question of the military industrial complex output in Germany comes into play. Although the annual output is estimated as $34 Billion one of the major contractor Rheinmetall AG alone has a backlog of $39 Billion to be processed.

Strategy Direction

1. If the lust for war persists, Germany has no option other than sourcing military supplies from America or NATO countries in Europe such as Britain, France & Turkey

2. Geoeconomics is therefore stupid, as national coffer depletes in Germany and the cash flows to these countries making them stronger in geoeconomics stature at the expense of German public as well as arms manufacture.

3. Due to the foregoing, it is clear that war lust of the German government will not work but will consume the prosperity of the nation.

Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics, therefore, emerges as necessary policy perspective for the German planners!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser