Germany must extricate from Ukraine, sooner than later

Baby steps are taking place regularly in Berlin as regards to expressing support for Ukraine in the latter’s failing war with Russia. These are more of show rather than of substance. The unescapable fact remains that Germany must extricate herself from this imbroglio sooner than later. My stake:

Here are two such baby steps:

1. Germany and Ukraine executed yet another mutual defence agreement when Ukraine's Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and Germany's Boris Pistorius signed the latest one.

2. It was also announced that Berlin and Kyiv have decided to elevate their relations to the level of a "strategic partnership". Chancellor Merz, called this as the only correct decision for Ukraine’s defence because Ukraine is exhausting its human resources and she is in urgent need of new fighters. Hence, German army could be employed to round up eligible men of fighting age amongst the Ukraine refugees living in Germany.

For all intents and purposes the government, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, maintains a strong yet for a show unwavering commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The duplicitous mask must be un-masked for the betterment of three parties: Germany, Russia and Ukraine.

The Ukraine war was a conspiracy planted in the minds of West Europeans by the then US Administration to drain resources out of both Europe and Russia. It was a partial success. Europe got devastated financially and militarily due to exhaustion of the military stock of arms and ammunition along with large cash outlay earmarked for this war. As far as Russia is concerned initial setback apart the country has advanced in all areas including in geoeconomics.

The loss of Russian gas had a staggering effect on Germany. As the engine of European growth she suffered the largest dip in her GDP bottoming 2.7% on average. Value terms speak the horror story. Almost € 220 Billion lost in revenue generation. Still the administration of Friedrich Merz continues to gloss over the hefty loss. Although repeated announcements are being made to the effect that Germany is not abandoning domestic development due to Ukraine support the evidence shows the contrary.

The corporate plan of Germany of undertaking massive domestic investment to modernize economy by infusing about €500 billion over the next 12 years is fairly affected by the cash outflow towards the Ukraine war. Here is the cash outlay of wasteful Ukraine expenditure:

1. As the second largest donor Germany allocated almost € 100 Billion for the Ukraine project. Military aid alone accounts for € 55 billion and additional € 12 Billion is earmarked over and above this figure.

2. Revenue expenditure of maintaining over 1.156 million Ukraine refugees within Germany cast a pale of gloom. Dole paid to Ukraine refugees is estimated as € 39 Billion. Out of the 1,156 million refugees nearly 58% are women around 672,000. The rest is the men group numbering 484,000, majority of whom are eligible for conscription and have escaped from the clutches of Army Sergeants by migrating to Germany.

My Advice

Navigating strategy amid Geoeconomics, Merz led German Coalition must not waste time in making baby steps but concentrate on the following adult steps:

a) Parley with Putin to bring about peace in the region

b) Wash the hands out of the Ukraine war

c)  Hand over the Ukrainian refugees to the UN.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser