Recent survey indicates the obvious: Britain cannot
do without being in the EU. The results flashed that more than 53% of all
voters support Britain re-entering the Union, where 80% of in Labour,
Liberal Democrats and the Greens parties scoring “ayes” while conservatives dragging
their feet as they were the initiators of Brexit in the first place. Should
Germans worry?
Leave alone the tight-knit and arduous procedure of entry of Britain back to the union. What matters is whether the re-entry is beneficial to Germany.
Why Britain wish to re-join
1. A summary loss of cash at £ 140 Billion, GDP loss of 6% & investment loss of 10% per annum along with nearly 3 million Brits left unemployed had cumulative effect of pushing the country down.
2. Historically the Balance of Power Doctrine, Britain followed in Europe since 1763 A. D., as regards to France and later with Greater Germany had influenced political and geoeconomics affairs of the European continent. In a way, British interference kept the Russian Bear out of the Western European theatre. The Ukraine war turned the table. Russia has her hands around the necks of European powers prompting a welcome sign flashed for British re-entry.
3. US-UK special relationship is on downward spiral as Donald Trump is treating Britain not as an ally but as a vassal.
4. Americans are keen to get out of NATO and befriend both Russia & China in their quest for keeping the superpower trio status intact on the one hand and to harness geoeconomics clout of Russia in energy sector and China in the manufacturing arena.
5. An innovative perception has emerged where
America is cultivating the “Middle Power Group” in Europe as counterweight to Germany,
France and perhaps United Kingdom.
How Germany perceive British re-entry
1. Let me remind you the famous quote by Lyndon B
Johnson President of America regarding FBI Director Edgar Hoover: “It's probably better to have him
inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in”. This
quote implies the political strategy of tolerating an opponent inside where
at-least he can be managed rather than let him harass you from outside. For
both Germany and EU Britain fits just the personae of Edgar Hoover.
2. Right now Germany has one of the largest trading
nation relationship with Netherlands due to critical supply chain and transport
facilities. Rotterdam and Amsterdam are interconnected maritime hubs in the
Netherlands that facilitates Germany’s export and import trade. Yet there is a lacunae.
Even though Amsterdam, is a significant European financial hub it lacks the
punch London can deliver in terms high-tech, funds management specialised
merchant & investment banking services, marine insurance such as Lloyds and
ocean vessel registration & regulation hubs.
3. Finally, Germans are not known for cunning which trait is best
reserved for the Brits. Incidentally, her Aryan Brother Iran often refers to
Britain as the “Old Fox” reflecting not only the perception of notion of
cunning per se, but also of sly & devious foreign policy that she practised
in Europe throughout last 300 years or so.
My Advisory
Germans should worry about British re-entry into
EU. Yet once a proper framework is put in place such that British influence is controlled
by Germany and Germany alone then it must pass the muster. In sum, re-entry is not a bad
thing provided it is managed carefully by Germany on behalf of the
Union.
Navigating strategy amid geoeconomics, Germany must cautiously welcome British re-entry into European Union!
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff Rajulu
Strategy Adviser
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Strategy Adviser
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