Why Merz must rein in US base in Ramstein?

Right now Germany maintains some kind of neutrality in the on-going US-Israel war against Iran. But the Stress Test in preserving neutrality is too severe. My contention is Germany must restrain US offensive operations from the Ramstein base.

Here are couple of announcements made recently by the authorities in Germany:

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz "We are urging strongly that Iran's statehood be preserved”. At the same time he stated tongue in cheek that Iran war is hurting geoeconomics and expressed hopes for its quick end. But acknowledges that there is no plan to bring the war to its quick end.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told the press that Berlin has "no intention of participating in the present war". He alluded that in any case Germany lacks the necessary military resources for any offensive action, while emphasizing that German forces abroad would defend themselves if they were attacked.

The role played by American base in Ramstein is the real issue. This base, located in Germany's Rhineland-Palatinate region, is the headquarters for U.S. Air Forces in Europe and is the largest U.S. Air Force base outside the United States containing 3rd Air Force, 435th Air Ground Operations Wing, 521st Air Mobility Operations Wing along with the 86th Airlift Wing. It has both offensive and defensive capabilities.

So far US has not resorted to the use of offensive capability of this base. The moment it does Germany would be a co-belligerent in the present conflict. This could undermine the efforts made by Germany so far in maintaining somewhat of a cordial relations with Iran.

Now that Hormuz Strait is closed for energy traffic of oil & gas, North Stream Pipeline is gone forever Merz has a hot potato placed in his hand. Iran never forgets! Whether one does good or bad things for Iran, every item will be itched in memory.

I predict the following happening in the aftermath of the present hostilities:

1. Firstly, Iran would charge a Toll for oil & gas shipments passing thru Persian Gul either via tankers or pipeline.

2. Invade and capture Bahrain first and embargo Qatar next.

3. Declare the entire Persian Gulf as Iranian sovereign territory discarding the rights granted by UNCLOS to the coastal states of the Gulf.

4. Geoeconomics gives Iran a big stick for wielding power in the Gulf and beyond.

My suggestion

Germany especially Friedrich Merz must dwell upon charting strategy amid geoeconomics and throw full weight in supporting Iran to win this war! 

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

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E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

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