In a recent panel discussion at Davos a lady moderator asked a direct question from President Alexander Stubb of Finland. Can Finland defend itself from Russia without American help? Alex blurted yes first and thereafter was seen vacillating to the amusement of the audience. Even without being present in Davos, Putin can be visualised, smiling.
Alexander Stubb stated that he can defend Finland without USA because he has the following military assets: about 280,000 soldiers whom could be mobilised; air force has 64 F35 fighter jets; largest quantity of artillery piece; long range missiles for land, sea and airborne operations. He stressed that he can face hybrid war as well across the land border with Russia stretching 830 miles traversing thru wild forests and rural villages. Incidentally, this is the longest border of any NATO country facing the Bear.
Finland once part of the Russian empire was allowed to function as independent nation in 1917 with the proviso that she remains neutral. Later Stalin also nodded in agreement over this neutrality, which historians call “ finlandisation” the process whereby a country is induced to favour, or refrain from opposing, the interests of a more powerful country (in this case Russia) despite not being politically allied to it. Even after the collapse of Soviet Union in 1989, Finland was encouraged to be neutral by the then US Administration.
Arctic facing Finland has a population of 5.6 million with a per capita gdp of $56,000 derived mainly from services sector that contributes 73% of the national gdp. The total gdp of $ 315 million in 2025 marks the country as low-middle in European pecking order. Growth rate of 5% per annum is salutary indeed. A plus point is annual defence outlay of $ 6.4 million just 2% of the gdp.
Strategy Analysis
1. For Russia Finland as a neutral country is bad but tolerable. But when NATO clobbered her as a member in 2023 the entire calculus has changed from bad to worse. Overnight she became a direct security threat. This perception runs thru strategy. Specifically threat towards access to Baltic Sea has accentuated when combined with the other three Baltic Chihuahuas Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania who joined NARO much earlier in 2004.
2. Additionally’ Russia perceives Finland as geo-strategic threat considering that Russian Arctic Base in Kola Peninsula is well within her missile and long-term artillery
3. Russian geoeconomics strategy requires total
control of the Arctic front. Right now Russia has 53% stake. While
Finland does not have a 200-nautical-mile economic zone in the Arctic Ocean
like Russia, one-third
of her landmass lies north of Arctic Circle. More to it: Finland’s Lapland
region lies entirely within the Arctic covering 35,780 sq. miles.
4. In this context, Trump’s threat over Greenland
is a god sent opportunity for Vlad. For the moment, Trump has backed down on
his threat to forcibly occupy the largest island of the world but time and mood could change.
5. Putin is a patient leader. He would bade
for opportune time. Once Ukraine war ends with a victory for Russia and along with
the nod from his great pal Trump, Putin would order Russian soldiers inward to Finland.
Derivation
Russia the bear America the eagle are joined in the hip when it comes to charting strategy amid geoeconomics. Article 5 call would land on the deaf ear of US as and when Vlad embarks on his revenge!
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff Rajulu
Strategy Adviser
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Strategy Adviser
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