Alexander Stubb blurts in Davos; Putin smiles

In a recent panel discussion at Davos a lady moderator asked a direct question from President Alexander Stubb of Finland. Can Finland defend itself from Russia without American help? Alex blurted yes first and thereafter was seen vacillating to the amusement of the audience. Even without being present in Davos, Putin can be visualised, smiling.

Alexander Stubb stated that he can defend Finland without USA because he has the following military assets: about 280,000 soldiers whom could be mobilised; air force has 64 F35 fighter jets; largest quantity of artillery piece; long range missiles for land, sea and airborne operations. He stressed that he can face hybrid war as well across the land border with Russia stretching 830 miles traversing thru wild forests and rural villages. Incidentally, this is the longest border of any NATO country facing the Bear.  

Finland once part of the Russian empire was allowed to function as independent nation in 1917 with the proviso that she remains neutral. Later Stalin also nodded in agreement over this neutrality, which historians call “ finlandisation” the process whereby a country is induced to favour, or refrain from opposing, the interests of a more powerful country (in this case Russia)  despite not being politically allied to it. Even after the collapse of Soviet Union in 1989, Finland was encouraged to be neutral by the then US Administration.

Arctic facing Finland has a population of 5.6 million with a per capita gdp of $56,000 derived mainly from services sector that contributes 73% of the national gdp. The total gdp of $ 315 million in 2025 marks the country as low-middle in European pecking order. Growth rate of 5% per annum is salutary indeed. A plus point is annual defence outlay of $ 6.4 million just 2% of the gdp.

Strategy Analysis

1. For Russia Finland as a neutral country is bad but tolerable. But when NATO clobbered her as a member in 2023 the entire calculus has changed from bad to worse. Overnight she became a direct security threat. This perception runs thru strategy. Specifically threat towards access to Baltic Sea has accentuated when combined with the other three Baltic Chihuahuas Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania who joined NARO much earlier in 2004.

2. Additionally’ Russia perceives Finland as geo-strategic threat considering that Russian Arctic Base in Kola Peninsula is well within her missile and long-term artillery

3. Russian geoeconomics strategy requires total control of the Arctic front. Right now Russia has 53% stake. While Finland does not have a 200-nautical-mile economic zone in the Arctic Ocean like Russia, one-third of her landmass lies north of Arctic Circle. More to it: Finland’s Lapland region lies entirely within the Arctic covering 35,780 sq. miles.

4. In this context, Trump’s threat over Greenland is a god sent opportunity for Vlad. For the moment, Trump has backed down on his threat to forcibly occupy the largest island of the world but time and mood could change.

5. Putin is a patient leader. He would bade for opportune time. Once Ukraine war ends with a victory for Russia and along with the nod from his great pal Trump, Putin would order Russian soldiers inward to Finland.

Derivation

Russia the bear America the eagle are joined in the hip when it comes to charting strategy amid geoeconomics. Article 5 call would land on the deaf ear of US as and when Vlad embarks on his revenge!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

Can West reject Putin demand: NATO must roll back to 1991 position?

Originally this demand was made by Vlad in December 2021; NATO must return to its 1991 borders, effectively stating that all those countries joined thereafter are no longer part of NATO Alliance. In January 2026, Vladimir Putin renewed it. What the West can do now continue regardless or comply?

Russia always alluded to the point that US gave a promise not to enlarge NATO into east that means the former sphere of the then Soviet Union. James Baker was reported to have given this assurance in negotiations with Gorbachev. The fact is indisputable: “Not to expand one inch to the East was given”. The fact remains that this promise was not reduced to writing. But in diplomatic practice both oral and written assurance have equal weight.

As anticipated NATO rejected the renewed demand vehemently in January 2026 immediately after Putin demanded. However, the situation prevailing now and the strategy surrounding NATO expansion calls for impartial inquiry.

Let me give you few details about the membership in this Alliance:

1. Originally NATO formed in 1949 had 12 members. These are alphabetically Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, UK & USA

2. In 1991 four more members were admitted: Germany, Greece, Spain & Turkey

3. The expansion towards East was first made in 1994 when Czech Republic, Hungary & Poland joined.

4. Further expansion took place in 2004 when 7 more countries were admitted, namely, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Rumania, Slovakia & Slovenia

5. The year 2009 saw two more countries joining, Albania & Croatia

6. Thereafter, four more countries were o-opted: Montenegro in 2017, Macedonia in 2020, Finland in 2023 and Sweden in 2024

7. A grand total of 32 countries are in this Alliance now, for all intent and purposes acting as a bulwark against the so-called Russian threat.

Strategy Analysis

1. Russia is not worried about Balkan nations Albania, Croatia, Macedonia and Montenegro because these were not part of the erstwhile Soviet Union

2. The Nordic countries in NATO presents security and geoeconomics threat to Russia. Denmark, Iceland and Norway were in the original lot in 1949 and can be excused. More troublesome for Russia are Finland and Sweden. In the case of Finland she was part of the Finlandisation area where she has to be neutral throughout.

3. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are the Nordic Chihuahuas who are the most irritating in terms of verbal assault upon Putin and his team.

4. Lithuania and Poland present strategic challenge as the "gap" between these two countries known as Suwałki Gap, a 60 mile stretch of border separating these two NATO countries. This gap is flanked by Kaliningrad exclave in the Baltic Sea and Belarus. Roads and railways connecting Belarus and the exclave runs thru this gap and protecting it is a big nightmare for Russia in the event of hostilities breaking out.

5. Finally, if and when Trump’s effort to rake in Greenland succeeds, Russia can cite the same reason Trump is blurting out today, and move in to capture Finland first thereafter the three sisters of Baltic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania one after another.

Strategic Direction

Here is my input: NATO would not survive after Greenland fiasco. Once America leaves NATO, Western Europe would be left with a toothless Lion in the form of denuded NATO. Germany has to take charge now. As the engine of growth in Europe Germany has to commence proceeding to dissolve NATO and agree for a common European Security Architecture with Russia.  A historic role is cast upon Germany to chart strategy amid geoeconomics so that Russia in America out and Germany up!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

 

Europe is hostage for Trump led America

From the end of WWII, it was crystal clear to experts in international relations that Europe would be treated as a hostage and not as an equal stake holder by America.  US aid, NATO, Bretton Wood Sisters rules based International order are instruments for managing the hostage. Trump made it very official now:

Europe was paying homage to the hegemon since the closure of the WWII. The situation changed to reverence with the end of Cold War in 1989 as the demise of Soviet Union heralded celebrations throughout Europe. Erstwhile Soviet countries became independent and with that EU got more enlarged.

Trump roared: Either Denmark allows Trump to buy Greenland at a negotiated price or leave the world’s largest island promptly so that US forces can take control. Already, America has one active military base in Greenland, known as Pituffik Space Base. About 200 US army personnel are manning it and another 600 support staff are employed few of them from Canada & Denmark. America also have the right to re-open all closed up facilities at any time as she wishes.

As the debate on taking over Greenland gets heated Trump does not hide how he would treat Europe as a hostage for achieving his goals. Here comes the clincher: Trump announced a 10% tariff on imports from several European countries who stand between his craving and supporting Denmark whose autonomous province is the Greenland. Eight countries are targeted: five are from the Nordic side namely Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, while three are powerhouses namely, France, Germany and UK.

The tariff is scaled. First salvo of 10% is effective from First February 2025. If Denmark continue to persist in its refusal to handover Greenland to America the tariff would be hiked to 25% w e f First June 2025.

Strategy analysis

1. If you read between the lines you would discern that Southern European nations such as Portugal, Spain and Italy are spared together with former Soviet nations including the darling Hungary. This is divide et vince, a Roman concept of divide and conquer used in the present age mainly by Imperial Britain.

2. Trump wants peace with Russia for geoeconomics benefit. The countries targeted by Trump are united in supporting Ukraine to continue her war efforts against Russia. So Trump despises them most.

3. Trump is neither sacred nor worried about Russia. His concern is to continue as a hegemon in North Atlantic and North Pacific to a great extent.

4. For naval strategy the control of GIUK gap -Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom - is as crucial as this choke point has vantage over open water mass situated between the Arctic and Norwegian Seas. Besides, Trump also requires strategic control over Denmark Strait, Prince Christian Sound, Cape Farewell at the Southern tip of Greenland as well as Baffin Bay.  

5. Arctic melting gives way for more navigable space where Nordic countries such as Norway, Iceland, Finland, and Sweden are placed at advantageous position to reap more from Arctic tourism revenue.  Trump needs the lion share.

6. Last but not least, is his desire to continue dollar dominance by dethroning Euro as a ruling currency in the part of Northern hemisphere

Finally it all boils down to geoeconomics. He does not mind China as economic power and Russia as military strongman. But Trump is not willing to accept Europe as of equal standing. Strategy amid geoeconomics teaches him to get better of European Union in particular and Europe in general. 

 

Cheers! 

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser