Europe under attack

During the last few centuries it was Europe that was attacking the rest of the world, creating colonies and crafting their destinies. Now the tables are turned. There is notable scramble for Europe. Here is the evidence:

1. America which for the entire twentieth century provided leadership, in political, economic and military affairs of the continent has apparently changed course and now talk about Make America Great Again (MAGA)

2. A new challenger has emerged in the horizon in the form of BRICS with dedication towards multi polarity. Gone are the days the G7 can set the rules and rule the waves. Day after day this motley group is coming out with new systems and institutions posing a direct threat to the western hegemony. Trading currency, reserve currency, payment system, settlement system and of recent replica for Brussels based Euro clear are part and parcel of this challenge

3. Of late, the RIC format got a new addition;

Russia-Iran-China trio is expected to transform into a Pygmalion in all three vital vectors, politics, economics and military in direct contestation with Europe

4. For all these years the fate of Russia was deeply ingrained in the European culture where Russian energy oiled the entire industrial production with notable contribution by Germany leveraging five to six times energy to final product ratio. Now Russia is unplugging from European theatre and moving towards China & Global South. In terms of geoeconomics, this is the major shock

5. NATO ideology of keeping Russia out, America in and Germany down has only made Europe to outsource her security across the Atlantic, a strategy akin to hara-kiri the famed Japanese self-sacrifice. No distinct military industrial complex was seen anywhere in Europe. Ukrainian collapse is expected soon with that European security architecture falling like a domino

6. Only the fools would expect Germany to be bound with moribund NATO security umbrella when America calls it a day. Either Germany makes the move first by quitting NATO or be bound to carry the burden of providing for European security in addition to the existing function of funding Europe. In context, let me allude to the earlier understanding that Germany should finance Europe while France provides for the Gendarme

7.  Finally, the biggest threat for Europe is not external but internal. Once Russia winds up Ukraine war there is inevitable re-drawing of Ukraine –Russia border. I doubt whether it would be an isolated incident. Hungary has eyes on Carpathian lands, Poland would ask for L’viv city and surrounding areas. Belarus would expand to the present Southern Ukraine. Rumania not to be left out would encroach on the Danube river crossings. For all these claimants geoeconomics is the primary factor for acquiring more lands from the rump Ukraine.

Hence, strategy amid geoeconomics remains the guiding motivator for re-drawing of the boundaries between and amongst the European countries. And that is deemed as the paramount threat!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser

 

 

 

Wessis vs Ossis, the German divide continues

During the Cold War there was an informal comparison between West & East Germany where the people living in the West was called “Wessis” and citizens of the Eastern part nicknamed as “Ossis”. More than 3.5 decades later the divide continues.

As the Berlin Wall fell on 9 November 1989 after protests by the East German citizens the geographical divide between the eastern and western parts got obliterated. Aftermath, both Russia and the then West Germany agreed upon the terms of unification. Yet it was limited to a political union only. The cultural and economic woes of the East Germany remained till now.

Look at the Poverty Rate as announced by the German Federal Government which signified an amount less than 60% of the Federal Mean Income. All five former states of East Germany are above the threshold figure of 15.5% fixed as the poverty rate for the year 2025. Saxony –Anhalt tops the list at 19.5 % closely followed by Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 19.4%. Only Brandenburg has less than poverty rate marginally at 15.2%. It was rumoured that most of these scores have to be re-worked as the recent poverty rate of Mecklenburg is deemed at 24% much higher than the Federal Median.

The entire Eastern part of Germany absorbed into Federal state suffers from economic and geoeconomics issues. Some of these are listed below:

1. The Soviet Era heavy industries still remain without any rejuvenation

2. The economic shock of re-unification has not softened yet

3. There is no industrial competitiveness in the eastern states that were absorbed into Federal Germany

4. Privatization of the Soviet Era enterprises only led to major brain drain of skilled workers across the divide towards the western sphere

5. Doing away with Soviet style subsidization of public sector housing affected the average wage earners drastically

6. Migration of youth wholesale to places like Hamburg and Stuttgart resulted in larger aged population left in the East fending for themselves

7. There is a sense of loss of dignity amongst the easterners who see the Wessis simply as British type colonisers.

The Wessis vs Ossis divide might morph into either of the two scenarios:

a)  The Ossis rebel against the Federal Government and ask for freedom from the yolk of Wessis

b)  Pass a resolution in their respective State Assemblies to re-join with Russia

"Strategy amid geoeconomics” dictate the following manoeuvres:

a) On the part of Federal Government to hasten economic and cultural progress in East to alleviate the trauma arising out of poverty

b) Stop all those anti-Russian propaganda and engage with the Eastern population fostering their unique cultural and political values.

Both compel the German Federal government’s habit of burying its head in the sand be removed and to begin a new era of all-inclusive re-unification.

In order to that Germany needs a leader like the Fuhrer!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Strategy Adviser

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Strategy Adviser